Many people watched with bemusement as Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich stood at his news conference last Friday and proclaimed his resolve to fight the criminal charges against him as he expressed his confidence that the truth will set him free. Is this man mentally ill or is he an extremely shrewd politician?
Reading between the lines of how the case has developed in the news recently, it is very likely that the truth will set him free. A deal may have already been struck, and it will come quickly, and it will be very favorable to the embattled governor.
How do we know this? Firstly, there is one obvious truth overshadowing the entire affair. There is no chance that Rod Blagojevich is the lone corrupt policitician in Illinois government. This being the case, there are certainly many present and former Illinois politicians who have been lying awake recently worrying about what Blagojevich might tell federal authorities. In federal court, information is king- it is the currency that buys freedom. Under Rule 5K1.1 of the Federal Sentencing Guidelines, the government handsomely rewards those who provide “substantial assistance” to the government. So, in a very real sense, the “truth” will set Blagojevich free- that is, if he is forced to rely upon “substantial assistance” to help himself.
There are many people in positions of power who would like to make sure it never comes to that. Blagojevich’s proclaimation that the truth would set him free was a threat, and those who were the object of the threat heard it loud and clear. This is why the Illinois United States Attorney who is prosecuting Blagojevich stalled the state impreachment proceedings on the grounds that it would “compromise the criminal proceedings.” State impreachment proceedings would be a disaster- and Blagojevich knows it. The lax rules of evidence and the wide-ranging rules of relevance would permit Blagojevich to tell all he knows about everyone he knows in Illinois government. Consequently, Blagojevich knows, too, that his resignation as governor is a “valuable thing”. He is not just going to just give it away.
So, we can all expect Blagojevich to go away quietly with little or no criminal consequences in federal court. When it happens, those involved will hold a news conference and proudly proclaim that a costly, uncertain, and divisive criminal trial of the sitting governor of Illinois has been avoided. Governor Blagojevich has agreed to resign. In return for this “valuable thing” the criminal charges have gone away.
Business as usual.